Demand Forecasting

water supply

Water Demand Forecasting

Tampa Bay Water provides regional water demand forecasts for its six member governments to project the amount of water supply needed within Tampa Bay Water’s service area. The agency’s Long-term Demand Forecasting models are designed primarily for the purpose of long-term planning and forecasting over 20-30 year horizons.

Tampa Bay Water has sought and developed a better understanding of variation in water demand and its implications on supply development options (size and timing). The agency commissioned the development of a long‐term demand forecasting system (LTDFS) in 2001 to quantify how socioeconomic, weather characteristics and policy decisions influence potable water demand in its service area.

A principal product of this initiative is our regional demand model that calculates demand inclusive of the influence of weather, socioeconomic and policy conditions. The model was developed on a geographic basis, such that water demand was forecasted for distinct locations in the Tampa Bay Water service area. These model‐based demand forecasts help decision‐makers assess water supply needs over a planning horizon extending through the year 2040.

Optimized Regional Operations Plan (OROP)

With water from two river sources, reservoir storage, desalinated seawater and groundwater, Tampa Bay Water has a complex system that requires a flexible operating plan that meets demand and protects the environment, ensures reliability and minimizes cost.

Our operating protocol guides the agency in selecting water sources to meet the members’ demands for safe, clean, affordable water while ensuring environmental sustainability.

The Optimized Regional Operations Plan (OROP) is a vital part of our Decision Support System that uses forecasted surface water flows, current groundwater level conditions and rainfall data to determine how to rotate production among available supplies to meet demands in an environmentally sound manner.

This tool ensures water demand for the tri-county region can be met with minimal adverse environmental impacts by using sophisticated computer models to analyze and forecast groundwater conditions at water supply facilities. Based on continual field monitoring and these forecasts, water production can be rotated or adjusted to avoid ecological harm.